According to Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX, September’s bunker market was driven primarily by geopolitical and supply-side factors. Middle East uncertainty, reduced Gulf and Russian product flows, and tight distillate and VLSFO supply supported prices, while weaker global oil demand expectations partly offset upward pressure. The key market drivers included: Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz. Supply and shipping disruptions kept the geopolitical risk premium elevated, driving bunker market volatility and briefly pushing Brent above USD 110/bbl. Tight crude supply. Lower Gulf output and falling global inventories increased supply pressure and reduced market buffers. Persistent distillate tightness. Diesel and gasoil remained among the strongest parts of the barrel. Gulf diesel/gasoil exports stayed substantially below pre-conflict levels, while refinery capacity elsewhere struggled to compensate. This provided particularly strong support to MGO LS bunker prices. VLSFO blending-component constraints. Strong distillate margins increased competition for low-sulphur blending components, limiting VLSFO availability and supporting VLSFO prices relative to crude and HSFO. Regional bunker supply imbalances. Physical availability differed significantly between major hubs, producing substantial deviations between market bunker prices and underlying benchmark values. By Sep. 30, MABUX MDI showed all four major hubs—Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah and Houston—underpriced in the MGO LS segment, while regional differences persisted for HSFO and VLSFO. Higher European compliance costs. RED III requirements increasingly affected Northwest European bunker economics. In Rotterdam, higher compliance costs weakened competitiveness versus neighboring ports such as Antwerp and Hamburg and contributed to shifts in bunker demand. Rising LNG bunker prices. LNG strengthened during September as European gas prices moved higher amid tighter LNG supply and concerns over relatively low Eu